The planet is changing climate. Earth's climate is changing. What we are going to do? Consequences of global change

Changing of the climate

Changing of the climate  - fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values \u200b\u200bover a period of time from decades to millions of years. Changes in both average values \u200b\u200bof weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology. The cause of climate change is the dynamic processes on Earth, external influences, such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, according to one version, recently, human activity. Recently, the term “climate change” has been used as a rule (especially in the context of environmental policy) to refer to changes in modern climate (see global warming).

The problem in theory and history

8,000 thousand years ago, agricultural activity began in a narrow belt: from the Nile Valley through Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley to the territory located between the Yangtze and the Yellow River. There, people began to grow wheat, barley and other cereals.

5000 years ago, people began to actively grow rice. This, in turn, requires artificial irrigation of land. Consequently, natural landscapes turn into anthropogenic bogs, which is a source of methane.

Climate Change Factors

Climate changes are caused by changes in the Earth's atmosphere, processes occurring in other parts of the Earth, such as oceans, glaciers, as well as effects associated with human activities. The external processes that form the climate are changes in the solar radiation and the Earth’s orbit.

• change in size, topography and relative position of continents and oceans,
• change in the luminosity of the sun,
• changes in the parameters of the orbit and the axis of the Earth,
• a change in the transparency of the atmosphere and its composition as a result of changes in the volcanic activity of the Earth,
• a change in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4) in the atmosphere,
• change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (albedo),
• change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.

Climatic changes on Earth

Weather is the daily state of the atmosphere. Weather is a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system. Climate is an average weather condition and it is predictable. The climate includes indicators such as average temperature, rainfall, sunny days and other variables that can be measured in any particular place. However, processes that can affect the climate are taking place on Earth. Weather, the state of the atmosphere in the place in question at a certain moment or for a limited period of time (day, month, year). The long-term regime of P. is called climate. Items are characterized by meteorological elements: pressure, temperature, air humidity, wind strength and direction, cloud cover (duration of sunshine), precipitation, visibility range, fog, snowstorms, thunderstorms and other atmospheric phenomena. With the expansion of economic activity, the concept of P. expands accordingly. Thus, with the development of aviation, the concept of P. arose in a free atmosphere; the value of such an element of P., as atmospheric visibility, increased. Data on the influx of solar radiation, atmospheric turbulence, and some characteristics of the electrical state of air can also be attributed to P.'s characteristics.

Icing

There is a skepticism about geoengineering methods for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, proposals for storing carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or pumping it into the rocks on the ocean floor: removing 50 millionths of gas by this technology will cost at least $ 20 trillion, which is twice the national debt of the United States.

Plate tectonics

Over long periods of time, tectonic plate movements move continents, form oceans, create and destroy mountain ranges, that is, create a surface on which climate exists. Recent studies show that tectonic movements exacerbated the conditions of the last ice age: about 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided, forming the Isthmus of Panama and closing the routes for direct mixing of the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Solar radiation

Changes in solar activity over the past few centuries

In shorter time periods, changes in solar activity are also observed: an 11-year solar cycle and longer modulations. However, the 11-year cycle of the appearance and disappearance of sunspots is not explicitly tracked in climatological data. The change in solar activity is considered an important factor in the onset of the small ice age, as well as some warming observed between 1900 and 1950. The cyclic nature of solar activity is not yet fully understood; it differs from those slow changes that accompany the development and aging of the sun.

Orbit changes

In their effect on climate, changes in the Earth's orbit are similar to fluctuations in solar activity, since small deviations in the position of the orbit lead to a redistribution of solar radiation on the surface of the Earth. Such changes in the position of the orbit are called Milankovitch cycles, they are predictable with high accuracy, because they are the result of the physical interaction of the Earth, its moon satellite and other planets. Changes in the orbit are considered the main reasons for the alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the last ice age. The precession of the earth’s orbit results in smaller changes, such as the periodic increase and decrease in the area of \u200b\u200bthe Sahara desert.

Volcanism

One strong volcanic eruption can affect the climate, causing a cooling period of several years. For example, the eruption of Pinatubo volcano in 1991 significantly affected the climate. Giant eruptions, forming the largest magmatic provinces, occur only several times in a hundred million years, but they affect the climate for millions of years and cause the extinction of species. Initially, it was assumed that the cause of cooling is the volcanic dust emitted into the atmosphere, since it prevents the solar surface from reaching the Earth's surface. However, measurements show that most of the dust settles on the surface of the Earth for six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the geochemical carbon cycle. Over the course of many geological periods, carbon dioxide was released from the bowels of the earth into the atmosphere, thereby neutralizing the amount of CO 2 extracted from the atmosphere and bound by sedimentary rocks and other geological sinks of CO 2. However, this contribution cannot be compared in magnitude with the anthropogenic emission of carbon monoxide, which, according to estimates by the US Geological Survey, is 130 times higher than the amount of CO 2 emitted by volcanoes.

Anthropogenic impacts on climate change

Anthropogenic factors include human activities that change the environment and affect the climate. In some cases, the causal relationship is direct and unambiguous, as, for example, with the effect of irrigation on temperature and humidity, in other cases, this relationship is less obvious. Various hypotheses of human influence on climate have been discussed for many years. At the end of the 19th century, for example, the theory “rain follows the plow” was popular in the western part of the USA and Australia.

The main problems today are: the growing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols in the atmosphere that affect its cooling, and the cement industry. Other factors, such as land use, ozone depletion, animal husbandry and deforestation, also affect climate.

Fuel burning

Interaction of factors

The impact on the climate of all factors, both natural and man-made, is expressed by a single value - the radiation heating of the atmosphere in W / m 2.

Volcanic eruptions, glaciations, continental drift and the Earth’s pole shift are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth’s climate. On a scale of several years, volcanoes can play a major role. As a result of the eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in 1991 in the Philippines, so much ash was abandoned to an altitude of 35 km that the average level of solar radiation decreased by 2.5 W / m 2. However, these changes are not long-term; particles settle down relatively quickly. On a millennium-wide scale, the climate determining process will probably be a slow movement from one ice age to the next.

Earth's climate is changing rapidly. Scientists are trying to figure out what causes climate change, collecting evidence to rule out the wrong reasons and find out who is responsible.

Based on over a hundred scientific studies, it is understood that people are responsible for much of climate change over the past 150 years.

People affect climate change

People are not the only reason affecting climate change. Weather has changed throughout Earth’s history, long before humans evolved. The sun is a major climate factor. Roughly speaking, global temperature will increase when more energy from the sun enters the atmosphere than it returns to space through the atmosphere. The Earth cools at any time if more energy returns to space than comes from the Sun, while humans can influence this balance. There are also other factors: from continental drift and changes in the shape of the Earth’s orbit to changes in the activity and phenomena of the Sun, like the El Niño process (fluctuation in water temperature in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean), all this can affect the climate. Given the pace of climate change today, scientists can exclude from the majority some of the causes that are too slow to explain the current climate change, while others have small cycles, rather than long-term trends in climate in parts of the planet. Scientists are aware of these factors and can take them into account when evaluating weather changes caused by humans.

Human Impact on Climate Changewas first described more than a hundred years ago, based on research in the 1850s by the English physicist John Tyndall.

Light from the Sun heats the surface of the Earth, which then emits energy in the form of infrared radiation, which is felt on a sunny day. Greenhouse gases, such as water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2), absorb this radiated energy, and the atmosphere and surface heat up. This process leads to a warming of the Earth’s temperature than if it were heated only in direct sunlight.

For over 100 years, scientists have considered people as the main cause in the current climate change. At the turn of the 20th century, the Swedish physicist-chemist Svante Arrhenius suggested that people, as a result of burning coal, increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and enhanced the natural warming effect, making the atmosphere warmer more than if it all went through strictly natural processes.

When people burn gasoline, coal, natural gas, and other types of fuel to generate electricity or drive a car, they emit significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. When a liter of gasoline is burned, the amount of CO2 emitted will be 2 kg. Greenhouse gases are emitted from power plants and cars, from landfills, farms and deforestation, as well as through other subtle processes.

Since 1950, scientists began methodically measuring globally the increase in carbon dioxide. Since then, they have confirmed that the increase is primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels (and through other areas of human activity, such as land clearing). This increase, as well as CO2 changes, is added to the atmosphere and provides a “smoking gun” that indicates that people are responsible for elevated levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

06/22/2017 article

TEXT ECOCOSM

What is climate change on our planet?

To simplify, this is an imbalance of all natural systems, which leads to changes in the regime of precipitation and an increase in the number of extreme events, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts; these are sudden changes in weather caused by fluctuations in solar radiation (solar radiation) and, more recently, human activities.

Climate and weather

Weather is the state of the lower atmosphere at a given time in a given place. Climate is an average weather condition and it is predictable. The climate includes indicators such as average temperature, rainfall, sunny days and other variables that can be measured.

Climate change - fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or of its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values \u200b\u200bover a period of time from decades to millions of years. Moreover, changes in both average values \u200b\u200bof weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology.

Dynamic processes in the electric machine of the planet are a source of energy of typhoons, cyclones, anticyclones and other global phenomena Bushuyev, Kopylov “Space and Earth. Electromechanical interactions "

The reason for climate change is dynamic processes (imbalance, balance of natural phenomena) on Earth, external influences, such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and one can add human activities.

Icing

Glaciers have been recognized by scientists as one of the most significant indicators of climate change: they increase in size during cooling (the so-called “small ice ages”) and decrease during climate warming. Glaciers grow and melt due to natural changes and under the influence of external influences. The most significant climatic processes over the past several million years are the change in the glacial and interglacial eras of the current ice age, due to changes in the Earth's orbit and axis. Changes in the state of continental ice and sea level fluctuations within 130 meters are in most regions the key effects of climate change.

World Ocean

The ocean has the ability to accumulate (accumulate for the purpose of its subsequent use) thermal energy and move this energy to various parts of the ocean. A large-scale oceanic circulation created by a density drop (a scalar physical quantity, defined as the ratio of body mass to the volume occupied by this body) of water formed due to the heterogeneity of the distribution of temperature and salinity in the ocean, that is, it is caused by density gradients as a result of fresh water flows and heat. These two factors (temperature and salinity) together determine the density of sea water. Wind surface currents (such as the Gulf Stream) move water from the equatorial part of the Atlantic Ocean to the north.

Transit Time - 1600 years Primeau, 2005

These waters are cooled along the way and as a result, due to the increase in the resulting density, they sink to the bottom. Dense waters at depths move in the direction opposite to the direction of movement of wind currents. Most of the dense waters rise back to the surface in the region of the Southern Ocean, and the “oldest” ones (in transit time of 1600 years (Primeau, 2005) rise in the northern part of the Pacific Ocean, this is also due to sea currents - constant or periodic flows in the thickness of the oceans and seas. Distinguish between constant, periodic and irregular currents, surface and underwater, warm and cold currents.

The most significant North and South Passat currents for our planet, the currents of the West Winds and density (determined by differences in water density, for example, the Gulf Stream and the North Pacific Current).

Thus, between the ocean basins within the framework of the “oceanic” time measurement, there is constant mixing, which reduces the difference between them and unites the oceans into a global system. During movement, water masses constantly move both energy (in the form of heat) and matter (particles, dissolved substances and gases), therefore large-scale oceanic circulation significantly affects the climate of our planet, this circulation is often called the oceanic conveyor. It plays a key role in the redistribution of heat and can significantly affect the climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciation and the Earth’s pole shift are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth’s climate  Ecocosm

In terms of observation, the current state of the climate is not only a consequence of the influence of certain factors, but also the entire history of its state. For example, in ten years droughts of a lake partially dry up, plants perish, and the area of \u200b\u200bdeserts increases. These conditions, in turn, cause less heavy rains in the years following the drought. Thus, climate change is a self-regulating process, since the environment reacts in a certain way to external influences, and, changing, it is itself able to influence the climate.

Volcanic eruptions, continental drift, glaciation and the Earth’s pole shift are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth’s climate. On a millennium scale, the determining process will be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

Climate changes are caused by changes in the Earth’s atmosphere, processes occurring in other parts of the Earth, such as oceans, glaciers, and also in our time, effects associated with human activities.

To complete the coverage of the issue, it should be noted that the processes that form the climate, collect it - these are external processes - these are changes in solar radiation and the orbit of the earth.

Causes of climate change:

• Change in size, topography, relative position of continents and oceans.
• Change in luminosity (the amount of energy released per unit time) of the Sun.
• Changes in the parameters of the orbit and the axis of the Earth.
• Changes in the transparency and composition of the atmosphere, including changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4).
• Change in reflectivity of the Earth’s surface.
• The change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.
• Tectonics (the structure of the earth's crust in connection with the geological changes occurring in it) of lithospheric plates.
• The cyclic nature of solar activity.
• Changes in the direction and angle of the axis of the Earth, the degree of deviation from the circumference of its orbit.

The result of the second reason in this list is a periodic increase and decrease in the area of \u200b\u200bthe Sahara desert

• Volcanism
• Human activities that change the environment and affect the climate.

The main problems of the latter factor are: the growing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols affecting its cooling, industrial animal husbandry and the cement industry.

Other factors, such as animal husbandry, land use, ozone depletion and deforestation, are also believed to affect climate. This influence is expressed by a single value - the radiation heating of the atmosphere.

Global warming

Changes in modern climate (towards warming) are called global warming. We can say that global warming is one of the local puzzles, and negatively colored, of the global phenomenon of "modern global climate change." Global warming is one of the set of individuals rich in instances of “climate change on the planet”, which consists in increasing the average annual temperature of the Earth's climate system. It causes a series of troubles for mankind: this is the melting of glaciers, and rising sea levels, and temperature anomalies in general.

Global warming is one of the local puzzles, and negatively colored, of the global phenomenon of “modern global climate change”  Ecocosm

Since the 70s, at least 90% of the warming energy is accumulated in the ocean. Despite the dominant role of the ocean in the accumulation of heat, the term “global warming” is often used to mean an increase in average air temperature at the surface of the land and ocean. A person can affect global warming by not allowing the average temperature to exceed 2 degrees Celsius, which is defined as critical for an environment suitable for humans. If the temperature rises, the Earth’s biosphere will face irreversible consequences, which, according to the international scientific community, can be suppressed by reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere.

By 2100, according to scientists, some countries will turn into uninhabitable territories, these are countries such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other countries of the Middle East.

Climate Change and Russia

For Russia, the annual damage from the effects of hydrometeorological phenomena is 30-60 million rubles. The average air temperature at the Earth’s surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (from about 1750) by 0.7 ° C. There are no spontaneous climate changes - this is an alternation of cool-humid and warm-dry periods in the range of 35 - 45 years (put forward by scientists E. A. Bricner) and spontaneous climate changes caused by human greenhouse gas emissions due to economic activity, that is, the heating effect of carbon dioxide. Moreover, many scientists have come to a consensus that greenhouse gases have played a significant role in most climate change, and that human emissions of carbon dioxide have already triggered a significant global warming mechanism.

The scientific understanding of the causes of global warming is becoming more and more definite over time. The fourth IPCC assessment report (2007) found a 90% chance that most of the temperature change is caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations due to human activities. In 2010, this conclusion was confirmed by the academies of sciences of the main industrial countries. It should be added that the results of rising global temperatures are sea level rise, a change in the amount and nature of precipitation, and an increase in deserts.

Arctic

It is no secret that warming is most pronounced in the Arctic, it leads to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. The temperature of the permafrost layer in the Arctic over the past 50 years has risen from - 10 to -5 degrees.

Depending on the time of year, the area of \u200b\u200bthe Arctic ice cover also changes. Its maximum value falls on the end of February - the beginning of April, and the minimum - in September. During these periods, "benchmarks" are recorded.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) launched satellite observation of the Arctic in 1979. Until 2006, ice cover was reduced by an average of 3.7% per decade. But in September 2008 there was a record leap: the area decreased by 57,000 square meters. kilometers in one year, which in a ten-year perspective gave a 7.5% decrease.

As a result, in each part of the Arctic and in every season, the ice area is now significantly lower than it was in the 1980s and 1990s.

Other consequences

Other warming effects include: an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, including periods of heat, drought, and rainfall; ocean acidification; extinction of biological species due to changes in temperature conditions. Important consequences for humanity include a threat to food security due to a negative impact on productivity (especially in Asia and Africa) and loss of human habitat due to rising sea levels. The increased amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere acidifies the ocean.

Counteraction Policy

A policy to counteract global warming includes the idea of \u200b\u200bmitigating it by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as adapting to its effects. In the future, geological design will become possible. It is believed that in order to prevent irreversible climate change, the annual reduction in carbon dioxide emissions up to 2100 should be at least 6.3%.

People or climate change: why Australia's megafauna died out

The ecological and biological systems of our planet are directly related to the peculiarities of its climatic zones. Over time, in certain regions and natural territories, as well as in the entire climate as a whole, certain fluctuations or deviations from statistically recorded weather parameters occur. These include average temperature indicators, the number of sunny days, precipitation and other equally important variables.

Thanks to many years of observations by scientists, documented, a phenomenon such as global climate change was noted. This is one of the most frightening natural processes, which today is of interest to the vast majority of the inhabitants of the earth.

Why is the weather changing?

Changing the weather settings all over the planet is a non-stop process that has been going on for millions of years. The constancy of climatic conditions has never been different. For example, the bright manifestations of such natural changes include the notorious periods of glaciation.

Paleoclimatology is engaged in the study of climatic conditions and their features from ancient times to the present day. Scientists conducting research in this scientific field noted that several important factors influence the weather at once. The climate as a whole is changing due to the following dynamic processes:

• earth orbit changes (orbit and earth axis parameters change);
• the radiation intensity of solar radiation and the luminosity of the sun;
• processes occurring in the oceans and glaciers (melting ice at the poles can be attributed to them);
• processes caused by human activities (for example, an increase in the content of gases in the atmospheric layers causing a greenhouse effect);
• natural volcanic activity (transparency of air masses and their chemical composition changes significantly when volcanoes awaken);
• tectonic shift of plates and continents on which the climate is formed.

The most devastating was the impact on the climate of industrial and human activities. And the combination of all of the above factors, including natural processes, leads to global warming (the so-called radiation heating of the atmosphere), which is not the most favorable way affects most of the ecological systems of the earth and causes understandable concern for the entire scientific world.

At the same time, a unified scientific theory that can shed light on all the causes of changes in the Earth’s climate still does not exist.

Cyclical changes

Natural fluctuations in climatic conditions on the planet are cyclical in nature. This feature was noted by A.I. Voeikov and E.A. Brickner in the 19th century. Cool and fairly humid periods on earth regularly alternate with drier and warmer ones.

About every 30 to 45 years, climate conditions change markedly. The process of warming or cooling can occur both in one century and affect several centuries (to be centuries-old). As a result, permafrost areas are changing, vegetation borders are shifted both along the meridians and in the mountains, and the areas of animals are shifting.

The anthropogenic impact on the climate is constantly growing in nature and is associated primarily with the social evolution of mankind. The development of energy, industrial production, and agriculture irreversibly changes the weather conditions on our planet:

• Carbon dioxide and other industrial gases entering the atmospheric layers cause a greenhouse effect.
• Thermal energy generated as a result of industrial and economic activity also penetrates the air masses and heats them.
• The contents of aerosol cans, solvents, detergents and gases used in refrigeration units destroy the ozone layer. As a result, the so-called atmospheric holes appear at an altitude of up to 35 kilometers, allowing ultraviolet light to freely pass through the atmosphere.

Consequences of global change

A “curtain” formed at a gas concentration (methane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbon are classified as dangerous substances) does not allow the earth's surface to cool. It seems to block infrared radiation in the lower layer of air, causing it to warm.

The effects of warming predicted in the near future are extremely serious. It:

• An unnatural mixture of previously established ecological systems, accompanied by the migration of wild animals to the northern territories of the continents.
• Change in the usual seasonality of the development of agricultural plants and, as a consequence, a decrease in land productivity in large areas.
• Reduced water quality and water resources in many countries of the world.
• Change in the average amount of precipitation (for example, there will be more in the northern regions of Europe).
• An increase in the salinity of the water in the estuaries of some rivers, caused by an increase in the general level of the World Ocean due to melting ice.
• Displacement of ocean currents. Already today, the Gulf Stream is gradually sinking. Further cooling of this course will lead to a sharp deterioration of the climate in Europe.
• An increase in the swamp territories and flooding of the fertile lowlands, which threatens the potential loss of the former places of residence.
• Oxidation of ocean waters. Nowadays, carbon dioxide saturation is about 30% - these are the consequences of human industrial activity.
• Active melting of polar and arctic ice. The level of the oceans over the past hundred years regularly rises on average by 1.7 millimeters per year. And since 1993, this increase in ocean water amounted to 3.5 millimeters annually.
• The threat of hunger due to food shortages caused by population growth and the loss of agricultural land around the world due to climatic conditions.

The totality of all these adverse factors will have a catastrophic effect on human society and the economy. The world economy will suffer, which will cause social instability in many regions.

For example, the increasing frequency of dry periods will reduce agricultural productivity and increase the likelihood of starvation in African and Asian countries. The problem of water supply in hot tropical areas will provoke a dangerous spread of infectious diseases. In addition, global warming trends will lead to natural disasters - weather conditions will become more unpredictable and volatile.

According to the expert opinion of the members of the Intergovernmental Group (IPCC), adverse changes in climatic conditions are observed on all continents and oceanic spaces. Experts outlined their concerns in a report dated March 31, 2014. Many ecological systems are already affected, which poses a threat to human health and the global economy.

Ways to solve the problem

In recent decades, meteorological and environmental monitoring has been strengthened, which will make it possible to make a more accurate forecast of climatic deviations in the near future and avoid environmental problems.

According to the worst assumptions of scientists, the temperature on the planet may rise by another 11 degrees, and then the changes will become irreversible. To prevent possible climate problems, the United Nations Convention was ratified in 186 countries over 20 years ago. This agreement provides all the basic measures to combat global warming, as well as ways to control the weather and its changes.

Many developed countries, which recognized this document as relevant, have created common programs to combat the release of greenhouse gases that are harmful to the climate into the air. Important projects also include the systematic increase in green spaces around the world. And countries with economies in transition are committed to reducing the amount of harmful gases that enter the atmosphere as a result of industrial activities of enterprises (this is indicated by the so-called Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997).

By 2020, Russia plans to reduce the emission of hazardous gases causing the greenhouse effect by up to 25% compared to 1990 due to their absorption by special storage devices and sinks. It is also planned to introduce technologies for energy conservation and the use of its alternative sources of environmental safety. The solar and wind energy used for generating electricity, heating residential and industrial premises has proven itself perfectly.

At present, disagreements between states with different economic levels of development do not allow the adoption of a single legal document indicating the exact amount of reduction of harmful gas emissions for each country party to the agreement. Therefore, the climate doctrine is developed by states individually, taking into account their financial capabilities and interests.

Unfortunately, the anthropogenic impact on climate is often viewed politically or even commercially. And instead of fulfilling in practice the obligations undertaken by the governments of individual states, they are only engaged in commercial trade in various quotas. And important international documents serve as levers of influence in trade wars and as a way of pressure on the economy of a country. It is urgent to change the consumer policy towards natural resources. And all the orders of the modern political elite should be directed, including to a comprehensive solution to environmental problems.

Scientists around the world have come to a consensus: in recent decades, due to the influence of people, the climate is changing faster. This position is shared by over 97% of publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals. It is shared by the Russian Hydrometeorological Service.

The Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation (approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 17, 2009 No. 861-rp) says that human activities, primarily related to greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, have a significant impact on the climate.

How does humanity affect climate change?

The climate is changing due to the fact that over the past century and a half in the atmosphere there have been significantly more greenhouse gases that retain heat near the surface of the Earth (like a blanket) and warm the planet.

There are several main reasons why there are more greenhouse gases:

• burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) at power plants and in internal combustion engines;
• forest area reduction (including due to fires);
• decomposition of organic waste in landfills;
• agriculture (especially animal husbandry).

From 1999 to 2017, the number of hazardous weather events in Russia increased by more than three and a half times.

Roshydromet

And what's wrong with that?

Climate change destroys the favorable conditions in which our civilization developed. Everything that our life depends on is threatened: weather, agriculture, biodiversity, infrastructure. In some parts of the world, hurricanes and floods are much more likely to occur, and in others, droughts. Due to rising sea levels, entire cities and countries can go under water, and other territories will become unsuitable for living due to the heat. Food and drinking water problems may increase the number of refugees and armed conflicts.

Russia may suffer more from climate change than other countries. In our country, the average annual temperature rises two and a half times faster than the global average. This is not enough to grow bananas, but it was enough that from 1999 to 2017 the number of dangerous weather events would increase by more than three and a half times (according to Roshydromet). More than 60% of Russian territory is in the permafrost zone. Due to climate change, permafrost is melting, so buildings and strategically important infrastructure in these areas are rapidly collapsing. In addition, aridity in most of the agricultural zone of Russia is increasing. More frequent heat waves and lower air quality due to forest fires harm people's health.

What to do?

Russia is the fourth country in the world in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissionsTherefore, it is unlikely that we can solve the problem of climate change without us. To this end, our country must ratify the Paris Climate Agreement, implement a program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, abandon direct and hidden subsidies to fossil fuels, begin the transition to renewable energy and introduce energy-saving technologies, take adequate measures to conserve forests, limit the use of disposable packaging and organize waste recycling.

  Wind Power Park in the Philippines.

What does Greenpeace do in Russia for this?

Greenpeace is seeking oil companies in Russia to comply with the necessary environmental and social standards. Due to insufficiently strict legislation, oil workers often do not care about nature and people: for example, they save on replacing dilapidated oil pipelines, which is why every year in Russia alone, according to the oil companies themselves, thousands of oil spills occur. If oil companies are forced to comply with high standards, this industry will become less attractive to investors. This is one of the necessary conditions for the development of green energy.

Two thirds of the oil is burned in internal combustion engines. Transport is a source of 80–90% of air pollution in many large Russian cities. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect people from toxic air pollution, Greenpeace advocates reducing the number of rides on private cars. Cars should have more environmentally friendly alternatives: first of all, affordable and comfortable public transport. Thanks to the good infrastructure, a bicycle can also become a full-fledged mode of transport, as has already happened in Northern Europe.

To preserve Russian forests, Greenpeace protects their pristine forests and seeks effective forest management where the forest has already been developed. The main damage to forests in our country is caused by fires: annually 2–3 million hectares are burned, which is two times more than all legal and illegal logging. The cause of 90% of fires in natural areas is human, therefore Greenpeace is engaged in a lot of educational work. Managing fire is easiest at an early stage. With the support of Greenpeace, volunteer groups across the country are doing this, from Ladoga to Lake Baikal.

Greenpeace stands for respect for natural resources and their rational use. In the manufacture of new things, most of the energy and resources are spent not on their production, but on the extraction and transportation of raw materials. Therefore, Greenpeace promotes the separate collection and manufacture of recycled waste. But in order to save the planet from climate change, it is not enough to establish recycling: you need to reduce consumption and abandon disposable things. For example, plastic bags that are used for their intended purpose for only a few minutes should disappear from stores, and then they will be dumped and other disposable plastic packaging.

Alas, this is not a solution ...

Nuclear energy

There are indeed fewer greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear power than from coal, but it will not work to save the planet from climate change. Even if the capacity of reactors around the world grows four times, this will lead to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by only 6%. But the construction of so many nuclear power plants will take many years and will require very high costs. These funds can be invested much more effectively in the development of renewable energy, which is growing much faster and does not carry the dangers associated with nuclear power plants (this is not only the risk of accidents, but also problems with the storage of radioactive waste).

Gas

Gas is a type of fossil fuel whose burning also leads to climate change. Specific greenhouse gas emissions from its combustion are approximately two times lower than from coal. But at the same time, there is a problem of leaks during gas production and transportation: methane enters the atmosphere, which affects the climate ten times more than the same amount of carbon dioxide.

So far, gas is seen as a “transitional fuel” on the road to energy based entirely on renewable energy sources. However, large investments in gas infrastructure today can turn us into hostages of burning fossil fuels for decades to come. In a situation where renewable energy is getting cheaper every year, we can move on to a better future right away, avoiding the wrong decisions.